Your NWSL leader in expected assists is…
Everybody loves goals. Everybody notices goals. It’s why Barbra Banda, Ashley Sanchez, and Kiki Van Zanten all made the NWSL Best XI for April.
Today we’re going to talk about what leads to the goals. The cross, the throughball, the cutback. The precise path that leads to a shot, or leads to a situation where there should be a shot. Much like expected goals tracks shot quality, these “expected assists” track the quality of final passes.
You may wonder: who leads the NWSL in expected assists, two months into 2026?
Is it an attacking midfielder, say Olivia Moultrie? No. Despite three actual assists, she’s barely top 20 in expected assists.
Is it a creative winger like Rosemonde Kouassi or Dudinha? No, they are third and fourth, respectively.
Maybe Kenza Dali, a deep lying playmaker who also takes corner kicks? Nope, she’s second.
Your NWSL leader in expected assists is… a defender.
Ryan Williams paces the NWSL in creating opportunites for others.
Her NWSL ranks are:
- expected assists (quality of passes that should lead to shots)¹: 3.8 (1st)
- expected assists per game: 0.55 (1st)
- expected goals assisted (quality of shots assisted)²: 2.97 (1st)
- expected goals assisted per game: 0.41 (2nd)
² per American Soccer Analysis
All of this has been done while playing as a fullback and/or wingback for North Carolina. The next closest defenders (Avery Patterson, Gisele Thompson, Izzy Rodriguez) aren’t even producing half as much.
In fact, Williams’ expected assists total through seven games is enough that it would rank in the top 12 for the full 2025 season.
Small shifts in attack lead to big results #
A key to Ryan Williams’ production has been a small tactical shift in how she’s been utilized.
Williams has always been a heavy part of the Courage’s build; under both Sean Nahas and Nathan Thackeray, she’d be an outlet for the centerbacks, interchange with the midfield, and push the ball up the wing to progress the ball forward.
Occasionally she’d overlap or underlap and drive into the final third to create. By ASA’s metrics the past few years, she reliably has good passing numbers, dribbling numbers, and in 2025 she posted shot-assisting numbers that put her in the top ten of fullbacks.
In 2026, Mak Lind has adjusted the Courage’s attack in two ways.
First, he moved Ashley Sanchez to the left wing, reframing her role from a possessor and creator into a finisher. Check out this analysis by Kofi on Bluesky for details.
In moving Sanchez to the left, he was left with a conundrum: how would the Courage advance the ball and attack on the right? Which of the Courage’s stable of unproven and semi-proven wingers would provide the attack?
Lind’s solution: what if we started with Ryan Williams already up the field?
Williams has gone from recieving under ½ of her passes in the attacking half, to nearly ⅔ in the attacking half. Once she recieves the ball, rather than using a combination of passing and dribbling to push the ball upfield, Williams takes the ball in an advanced position, combines with whomever is on the wing, drives it forward, and directly attacks the endline.
The difference in attacking numbers is staggering. Williams is progressing more, getting into the box more, assisting more shots, and assisting far better shots.
| Per 96 minutes | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Progressive passes | 3.34 | 3.97 |
| Progressive carries | 1.39 | 1.98 |
| Touches in penalty area | 0.88 | 4.23 |
| Shots assisted | 0.99 | 1.98 |
| xG assisted per shot | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| % of team’s xG assisted | 6.5% | 28% |
Yes, assisting 28% of the teams’ xG through seven matches is a little ridiculous.
Video evidence #
The results have followed.
A cutback to the penalty spot for Manaka.
Manaka gets us on the board 🪄
— North Carolina Courage (@nccourage.com) March 28, 2026 at 8:45 PM
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A cutback across the box for Sanchez.
SANCHITO IS THAT GIRL 🗣️
— North Carolina Courage (@nccourage.com) April 4, 2026 at 7:16 PM
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Overlap, drive, and a perfectly placed cross.
ASH'S FIFTH GOAL THIS SEASON!!!!!
— North Carolina Courage (@nccourage.com) April 29, 2026 at 8:52 PM
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And a bonus hockey assist on a low cross inside the six-yard box.
Manaka taps one in 🪄
— North Carolina Courage (@nccourage.com) May 2, 2026 at 8:22 PM
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Many of the final balls that led to unconverted shots, or not-quite-shots, follow the same pattern.
Looking forward to the rest of the season #
There is a tradeoff to the all-gas-no-brakes approach for Williams. Having her further upfield makes her much less involved in defense. While she can still do the job defensively, she’s less likely to be in a position to do so as often. By ASA’s g+ metric, she ranks 6th overall among fullbacks, mostly due to the lack of defensive activity.
Currently, the Courage adjust for this by not sending Dani Weatherholt as far forward, often appearing to be in a 3-back system when in possession. While the Courage have been somewhat more porous defensively than in 2025, Lind has determined the tradeoff to be worth it.
Even though it isn’t a huge number of games so far, Williams’ results are not a fluke driven by one or two games. In 2025, 0.19 expected assists per game would have been enough to lead all fullbacks. Williams has created more than that in every single game save one, and over twice as much in five of seven games.
Her results haven’t drawn a lot of publicity across the league; no assists of the week, and no best XI. (The best XI for April actually included four center backs.) Whether opposing coaches will notice, and make adjustments to attempt to take her away, is yet to be seen.
But until they do, the most productive NWSL player at creating shots for others may very well remain our local right back and co-captain.