Jumping to conclusions at the international break
The Courage head into the first international break with one win, two draws, and a loss. They’ve got a -1 goal difference, and sit in 9th place by points percentage.
By expected goals, they rate a little better. Over the season, they’re slightly better than average, but in a large clump of teams.
While it’s an improvement on the 2025 season where they only had two points through their first five games, their current points pace would likely leave them short of the playoffs.
In any case, four games represents a mere 13% of their season. Surely we’re not going to make sweeping judgements from four games?
Let’s dig into the stats and start jumping (or not).
The claim: Maycee Bell is the truth. Emma, are you listening? #
The opponent surges forward. Multiple opponents threaten the backline, and it looks dangerous. From the west sideline stands, a voice shouts out:
OK Maycee, clean it up!
And she does. Every game we see Maycee Bell snuffing up multiple attacks, even as the last line of defense.
❌MAYCEE❌BELL❌
— North Carolina Courage (@nccourage.com) March 21, 2026 at 7:10 PM
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Her statistical profile leaps off the page too.
By American Soccer Analysis’s G+ metric, she ranks second among center backs (behind Tara Rudd).
Are we jumping to conclusions? #
Well, it’s only four games. Surely if we run the numbers back to midseason break last year, Bell wouldn’t rank as high?
It’s true. Instead of 2nd, she falls all the way to… 7th in G+.
Her second half last year was pretty good.
She’s doing the same things as last year, but she’s winning more of her duels and tackles, and it shows.
It is worth noting that the majority of her value comes from on-ball defense: blocks, tackles, and clearances. She’s not necesarily stopping attacks before they start; she’s making sure they don’t finish.
Verdict #
Maycee Bell, at age 25, is entering the prime of her career, and only became a regular starter a month into the 2025 season. She’s already one of the better center backs in the league, and her leveling up to be among the best is entirely possible, even if the returns are early.
As for the national team, there is one hole in her profile. Compared to regular callups like Rudd, Emily Sams, Naomi Girma, and Tierna Davidson, she does not provide the same passing value as other national team center backs. Whether by team tactical setup, or her own skillset, Bell just doesn’t attempt many risky passes.
The claim: Mak Lind is an adjustments wizard #
Throughout the preseason and during regular season press confereences, the players have talked about Mak Lind’s variety of tactical plans. And the stats are clear: the Courage get better in the second half of games. (Note: these xG totals are from FotMob.)
| 4 games under Lind | 1st half | 2nd half |
|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.48 | 1.09 |
| xGA | 0.69 | 0.77 |
Are we jumping to conclusions? #
Compare it to 2025.
| Nahas (11 games) | 1st half | 2nd half |
|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| xGA | 0.65 | 0.73 |
Under Nahas they were what they were for the whole game.
| Thackeray (15 games) | 1st half | 2nd half |
|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.78 | 1.15 |
| xGA | 0.51 | 0.77 |
But in their games under Thackeray (including 3 games when Nahas was out due to a medical issue), they showed the same second half pattern they show under Lind - higher offensive output while being slightly more open defensively.
Game state plays a part in 2026 as well; the Courage will of course play more offensively in the second half when they are down 3-0 to Bay.
Verdict #
While it’s good to see some improvement in the Courage as the game goes on, it’s not enough to base any judgement on so far.
The claim: The Courage give away too many chances due to defensive breakdowns #
Previously: defensive woes against Bay
Even outside of the Bay game, there have been a number of points where a North Carolina opponent has gotten themselves free for a good chance – examples include Sheridan having to make a point-blank leaping save against Louisville, and Olivia Moultrie’s initial shot + followup goal in the last game.
A “good” shot is usally described as 0.15 xG or greater. A little over 25% of the shots the Courage allow have been good shots by this metric.
| Game | Total shots | Good shots | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 17 | 7 | 1.93 | 1 |
| Gotham | 9 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 |
| Bay | 12 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 |
| Portland | 16 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 |
Overall, ‘good shots’ have accounted for ⅔ of the xG the Courage have given up, and half of the goals they’ve allowed.
Even going beyond good shots, they’ve given up a number of what the event trackers deemed “big chances”: they’ve given up ten big chances in four games, four of which turned into goals.
Are we jumping to conclusions? #
Watching the games, it seems not great. But it’s worth looking at NC’s numbers in comparison:
| Game | Total shots | Good shots | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 14 | 3 | 0.92 | 0 |
| Gotham | 14 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 |
| Bay | 13 | 5 | 1.10 | 1 |
| Portland | 12 | 3 | 1.14¹ | 0 |
The numbers are roughly the same, beyond the note that the Courage haven’t converted their good shots, while their opponents have. Similarly, NC has seven “big chances”, of which they’ve scored two.
However, the way the Courage have gotten to similar numbers gives pause; their improvement coincides directly with Manaka returning to the lineup. Meanwhile, on defense they’ve given up a number of good shots regularly when they’re not playing Gotham. Not coincidentally, Gotham was the only game where North Carolina started all four of their originally projected back line.
Furthermore, it’s not as if the Courage are a heavy pressing team that might lead to some breakthrough opportunities. If you look at how high up the field their average defensive action is and how many passes they allow before an action, they are one of the least press-happy teams (despite some of Lind’s statements about wanting to press and win the ball back.)
¹ Also, that xG includes Payton Linnehan's last-minute chance against Portland being charted as 0.65 xG, which seems a bit high. Other xG sources (ASA) don't evaluate it that highly.
Verdict #
The Courage are allowing good shots and big chances at a higher rate than you’d like, in a way that lends credence to the defensive breakdown theory.
However, it’s still a bit early to make drastic changes. We’ll see if the defensive organization improves once Natalie Jacobs and Feli Rauch return to the everyday starting lineup.
The claim: The Courage’s offseason attacking makeover is a dud #
(OK, this one’s a gimme).
Right now, the Courage are a worse attacking team than they were last season. Their shots on target, expected goals, and goals are all worse than their 2025 numbers.
Evelyn Ijeh, Payton Linnehan, and Ally Schlegel have combined to get literally zero shots on frame (six misses, one blocked).
Even if you just look at shots taken, defenders Feli Rauch and Sydney Schmidt both have more shots per 90 than Ijeh, Hannah Betfort, Linnehan, Shinomi Koyama, or Cortnee Vine. They’ve moved Shinomi further up the pitch, and her shot-getting metrics have actually gone down from 2025.
If it wasn’t for Ashley Sanchez and Manaka Matsukubo turning 1.98 xG into 3.47 xG on target, and 5 goals… they’d have nothing.
Are we jumping to conclusions? #
Yes, it hasn’t been good. Sanchez has been great, but she’s also had to be great. The offense has been Sanchez and Manaka, with some high-value passing coming from Ryan Williams.
However, there are some small encouraging signs lurking under the hood.
Evelyn Ijeh has struggled some to adjust to NWSL pace and marking, but she’s getting into good positions, and when she gets shots, they’re good shots. She has the highest xG/96 on the team (minimum 100 minutes) – even higher than Manaka.
Ally Schlegel only has 55 minutes, but in those minutes has been a decent player; her 0.10 g+ per game puts her in the top third of Courage players.
Plus, they shouldn’t continue to finish this badly. In the non-Manaka/Sanchez department, the Courage have 30 shots, for over 4 xG. They have under two xG on target (and obviously zero goals). Eventually, they will regress in a positive direction.
Verdict #
The Courage have signed five new attackers since the middle of last year. Their coach hasn’t even been here four months at this point. It will take time to get attacking cohesion, and it is way too early to definitively say that they won’t.
At some point, Sanchez and Manaka will cool off, and the rest of the team will need to step up. Whether that’s giving Ijeh more match time to settle in, or giving Schlegel some run at the number 9 position, there are opportunities available to them.