Casey Murphy and the Courage's goalkeeping situation

If you had asked me on September 1st what might be the top priority for North Carolina Courage GM Dr. Ceri Bowley, I may have settled on the following combination of facts:

• Casey Murphy is a free agent at the end of the season
• Murphy likely commands a salary commensurate with USWNT-adjacent status
• The rest of the Courage’s goalkeepers had a combined zero NWSL minutes

That’s not a good way to go into the offseason.

Since then, however, Casey Murphy has been on the bench as Marisa Jordan has made three straight starts.

Why is no one talking about Casey Murphy being benched? This should be big news

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— Arianna Cascone (@casconearianna.bsky.social) September 19, 2025 at 9:01 PM

What have the Courage said? #

Murphy’s stint on the bench cannot be explained by their head coaching change; acting head coach Nathan Thackeray has been the Courage’s goalkeeping coach since 2017. In an August 16 press conference, Murphy spoke about Thackeray.

"It's also because I have a great coach like Nathan for the last five years that has pushed me every single day in training. Without his coaching I wouldn't have been able to get to where I'm at."

North Carolina’s press conferences, game notes, and recaps since the switch do not give a lot of insight into Thackeray’s thinking. When the switch was first made, it was noted in the Courage’s own prematch notes as just “Marisa Jordan gets the nod in net”.

After Marisa Jordan’s first start, Thackeray commented on Jordan’s performance, with no extra statements about the why of the switch.

"I thought Marisa was excellent. ... I thought overall for her first NWSL game, came up with some big moments, some big saves."

During the broadcast of that game, play-by-play announcer Mike Watts notes that Thackeray said “It’s [Jordan’s] until she loses it”. Watts continued, noting that Thackeray had said Murphy had played beneath her standard this year, and that he felt a change was necessary.

How was Murphy “beneath her standard”, and what does this mean for the future?

How has Murphy performed in 2025? #

Data from Opta by way of FBref

Casey Murphy joined the Courage in late 2020 as the centerpiece of the trade that sent Crystal Dunn to Portland, and immediately became both the Courage’s number one keeper, and a regular call-up for the US Women’s National Team.

How can we objectively measure her performance, though? One way is via post-shot expected goals (PSxG). PSxG is a measure of how likely a shot is to be on goal based on where it lands on frame. Values range from zero (every off-target shot) to near 1.0 (a perfectly placed shot). By comparing post-shot xG to goals allowed, we can see where goalkeepers have saved more (or fewer) goals than expected.¹

Here we compare Murphy’s PSxG per-game performance to her two main contemporaries for backup WNT keepers (Jane Campbell and Aubrey Kingsbury), as well as against the league average.

While just one metric from one provider, and goalkeeping stats can have small sample sizes, this does potentially tell a story.

• Murphy’s only significantly above average season was her first in North Carolina

Her first season was her best by far. Her other above-average shot-stopping season was last year in 2024.²

• She has been less consistent than her contemporaries

Both Kingsbury and Campbell, while not always above the league average, have at worst been just below league average, while sometimes being well above average. Murphy’s performance has been much more variable. While some variance is expected, someone who analyzes goalkeeping tape for a living might be able to watch and see what it is about how Murphy plays that might make her performances more volatile.

• Her shot-stopping performance has plummeted this year

So far in 2025, Murphy’s PSxG± per game of -0.21 is not only the worst of her career, it’s the worst among minutes qualifiers in the league by some margin. Angelina Anderson is second worst with a -0.07.

What about other areas of goalkeeping? #

Another way goalkeepers can impact the game is how they handle their box, specifically in claiming and punching away crosses. For this we’ll use Opta’s “stop percentage”, the percentage of crosses stopped by the goalkeeper in some way.

Murphy’s cross-claiming numbers are overall fine, although again her best season is her first in North Carolina. Some of this may also be coaching; it’s possible Thackeray prefers a less aggressive approach.

Murphy’s passing has remained good this year, although two errors in possession (one against Gotham, one against San Diego) have led to goals.

What may account for the dip in performance? #

Looking at where the Courage have given up goals in Murphy’s starts, there are two clear areas where they’ve underperformed relative to xG against, neither of which will be a surprise to Courage watchers.

First, Murphy hasn’t performed great on low-value shots.

We remember the Bugg Bomb™ and other long-range shots, and the numbers bear it out. If you take the poorer shots that the Courage have faced in Murphy’s minutes (shots that are 0.065 or lower by expected goals), they add up to 4.41 expected goals overall. We know from shots like Jordan Bugg’s, like Kiki Pickett’s, like Kiki Van Zanten’s, that the Courage’s opponents have shot well, and they have: these shots have a post-shot expected value of 5.8 expected goals. But on those shots, Murphy has allowed eight goals overall. While some of this is finishing luck that may regress to the mean over a longer period of time, a poor record on bad shots could mean that something is off with Murphy’s reflexes and/or movement across the goal.

Then there’s set pieces.

Again, here Murphy underperformed - 8 goals given up off of set pieces, compared to 6.97 post-shot expected goals. This isn’t all on Murphy, though.

The Courage have given up 27% of their shots off of set pieces, conceding 27% of their expected goals (6.29 out of 23.29) and 29% of their goals (8 of 28). Those numbers for non-Courage teams are 25.1% of shots, 19% of their expected goals, and 22% of their goals.

Put differently: despite the Courage ranking 12th in free kicks allowed and 7th in corner kicks allowed, they give up 11% more shots and 34% better shots on set pieces than the rest of the league. It’s bad!³

Again, this isn’t on Murphy; they’ve actually been even worse on set pieces in Jordan’s starts, as anyone who watched the corner parade against Utah will know. But their set piece defense made Murphy’s job harder, and she hasn’t so far this year been able to perform above level with that added load.

Other teams have noticed.

"We saw an opportunity and worked to exploit it." -Vlatko on the type of set pieces that they took against Casey Murphy (? from @danielsperrykc.bsky.social)

— Negro League Soccer Press Corps (@thombomb816.bsky.social) August 30, 2025 at 10:06 PM

The team knows this is a problem as well; in the Utah post-match press conference, Kaleigh Kurtz commented on it.

I think that's two, maybe three weeks in a row with a set piece goal. Last week was a second phase set piece, against Chicago it was a first phase set piece. Now this week another first/second phase. So it's definitely something we've got to look at, we've got to work on.

This does not discount other explanations. Murphy may be carrying a knock; I am not in a position to know. It’s also worth noting that Murphy has not appeared for the US national team this year, having not been called into camp since the January camp; it’s possible the pressure of competing for a post-Naeher spot is affecting her.

What are the Courage’s options? #

Just to recap, the other goalkeepers for the Courage are:

• Marisa Jordan

Jordan (née Bova) was a 2022 draft pick of the Courage out of Purdue University. In college she had 21 shutouts in 58 starts, and a career save percentage of over 80%. She slowly ascended the depth chart, taking over second spot in 2024. She started all four games for North Carolina during the NWSL x Liga MX Feminil Summer Cup. She is signed through the 2027 season.

• Katie Cappelletti

Cappelletti was a non-roster invitee for the Courage in 2025 after graduating from Saint Joseph’s University. In her final college season she allowed only 16 goals on 29.9 post-shot xG. She took over third goalkeeper after Hensley Hancuff’s retirement in May 2025. Her contract runs through the end of the year.

• Katelyn Rowland

Yes, yes, Rowland is actually retired and serving as North Carolina’s assistant goalkeeping coach. If a flu takes out all the rostered goalkeepers she’s probably still a better option than any signing off the street would be.

How has Jordan done so far? #

WARNING: small sample size

In Jordan’s three starts, the Courage have two wins and a draw. During those games, Jordan has allowed two goals on 2.7 post-shot xG, for a PSxG± of +0.24, which would put her in the top half of the league (tied with Jane Campbell).

In other metrics, she has not performed as well as Murphy did. She’s stopped 3.6% of crosses (2 of 56), almost half of Murphy’s rate. As for distribution, she has completed 88% of medium and 39% of long passes, compared to Murphy’s 98% and 49%. In the Orlando game, it was clear that Orlando was trying to press her as a less experienced goalkeeper. After the game, Thackeray called out Jordan’s clean sheet while also saying “[there are] things she needs to work on to get better and improve, but that’s the same for everybody else.” At least so far, the Courage are willing to live with growing pains in passing for improvements in shot-stopping.

One small area where Jordan might be an improvement on Murphy is from the spot. Jordan won two penalty shootouts in net during the NWSL x Liga MX Summer Cup, making multiple saves. Murphy has only saved one penalty as a professional, out of thirteen on-target kicks.

What’s next? #

Casey Murphy is a no-doubt Courage legend. She’s won multiple trophies with the team, and has nearly as many clean sheets (36) as all other keepers in team history combined (37). And yet her future with the team may be up in the air.

For the Courage to re-sign Murphy, they would likely have to make an a multi-year commitment on a significant contract that her experience and profile merits. To do so, they’d have to be convinced:

• that the Courage’s set piece woes are entirely not related to goalkeeper, and can be fixed with coaching/other personnel moves
• that Murphy’s underperformance on bad shots is just luck
• that Murphy’s overall 2025 downturn was just a blip and she can return to her 2021 and 2024 form
• that she will hold her form into her 30s

They’d have to make this decision while (presumably) onboarding a new coaching staff, and where every decision made to sign one high-profile player affects the ability to spend salary cap on the rest of the team. It’s not an easy decision to make, and one that will have ripples across the rest of their offseason plans.